Grocery Update #27: How To Read A Grocery Store.

Also: Food In The 2024 Elections.

Discontents: 1. How To Read A Grocery Store. 2. Food In The 2024 Presidential Elections. 3. Latin America Vs. UPFs. 4. “BFY” Takis Smackdown. 5. Tunes.

1. How To Read A Grocery Store.

Centering Grocery In Food Systems Analysis.

We are off to a big start with The Checkout Grocery Update. 27 issues in 5 months. Store profiles. Industry analyses. Inflation and consolidation overviews. Retail and wholesale fees. Lots of salt. But I wonder if we have gotten ahead of ourselves. A lot of what we are trying to do here is center the role of grocery stores, and the people who work in and around them, in conversations about the food system. It is a lot of understand, process and communicate. It is complicated. Sometimes we lose the forest for the trees, so to speak.

Over the last 20 or 30 years, food systems analysis has become very mainstream. Michael Pollan’s work is seminal, Omnivore’s Dilemma is etched in my brain. I take much of it for granted, from his passages on industrial corn to just how unhinged Joel Salatin was (Pollan could have been a little more critical of that nutter). Marion Nestle has likewise influenced myself and generations of food activists and policy makers. Like Professor Nestle, I have a background in science, although I never made it past my bachelor’s degree. We used to read her stuff when I was at Whole Foods. I can’t imagine the Amazon manager-bots encouraging that now.

Or the piercing and intensively researched Stuffed and Starved and The Value of Nothing by Raj Patel. Mark Bittman, Robyn O’Brien, Julie Guthman and Eric Schlosser also broadened our understanding. I read and re-read them all regularly. And a new generation of writers and scholars, like Ashante Reese, Monica White, Alicia Kennedy, Leah Penniman, Austin Frerick and Michael Twitty have taken this even further, centering the experiences of people of color, small farmers and working class communities in food history, critical analyses and culinary trends. Some authors, particularly Ben Lorr and Jon Steinman, have made the grocery sector the heart of their writings. These are some of the inspirations and influences for The Grocery Update and what we aspire to. We hold ourselves to these high standards.

Grocery stores, though, don’t always take center stage in food systems analysis.

The truth is that no significant changes will happen in how we grow, distribute, consume and dispose of food without everyone having a deeper, more coherent and unfiltered understanding of the grocery industry.

Grocery is the elephant in the room. Everyone buys groceries (and maybe shoplifts a little too). It is big. Too big for any one book to cover well. Maybe too big for a lifetime of newsletters. But because it is so big, it also gets glossed over, oversimplified, caricatured, poorly understood, under studied. I do not know ANY scholar or academic department in the United States that adequately teaches about grocery (but hit me up if you want to start one. Seriously).

It is not a stretch to suggest that despite all the efforts mentioned so far, the public dialogue on food has still been lacking a coherent and holistic understand of how industrial food, i.e., grocery, actually works. And this not a value judgement. Not if it produces and reproduces the good, bad, or the terrible. But first starting with what it is, how it exists, how it functions, and why. And this little Grocery Update is hoping to fill that gap, broaden the dialogue, give our readers the best, most incisive understanding of the modern grocery industry, from a first person perspective with the expressed intent to change it, move it forward, repair its externalized costs, reinvent its purpose, operations and intentions. No small ambition here. But you only live once. Might as well have some fun. Fuck shit up a bit.

This newsletter, therefore, is an insider’s unflinching, transparent and urgent take on the grocery industry.

What we have in our corner, what we can communicate differently, is based on thousands of hours in the weeds, in the trenches, stocking shelves, doing overnight inventory shifts, helping customers, negotiating with suppliers, going to facilities and trade shows, developing supply chains and devising sourcing criteria, launching new products, discontinuing and reformulating them and so much more.

What makes us unique is that we talk about it in a way that is as analytical, erudite, down to earth, critical, idealistic and frustrated as any of the aforementioned works of journalism and scholarship, but we are doing it from direct experiences and knowledge that is, to be honest and a little salty, broader and more in depth.

We are adding something unique and necessary to this chorus, to the literature, to the food zeitgeist. We are also, hopefully, creating a platform for other industry personnel with something intelligent and urgent to say, to be more than just cogs in the apparatus, but active participants and subjects in improving their material conditions and bringing about systemic food industry change.

With that in mind, we are going to pause our weekly grocery store profiles, ever so briefly. We may have gotten ahead of ourselves, as mentioned. Instead, we are presenting a short, high level framework for understanding grocery stores. So instead of slogging through 20 years of retail operations as a stock clerk, department manager, global buyer and board member, you instead get this handy “how to” guide. Whether you are working in grocery stores, or just shopping to stock the pantry. Or if you are reading about food, studying food systems at the abstract academic level, or working on pragmatic food policies in your hometown.

We hope this brief framework on How To Read A Grocery Store is helpful.

Sensory.

When you walk into a store, how does it look, smell, sound? What do you smell once you get past the entryway, once the positive air pressure forces indoor air into your lungs. Fresh produce, leafy greens, fruits and bouquets, sweet, clean smells? Does the bread aisle smell like it was just delivered fresh from commercial bakeries or do you get stale vibes? Or do you get rotten meat, disinfectant spray, floor cleaner, sour milk, mildew, or what I call the “Eu de Supermarket” that you smell in many stores over 10 years old? The HEB in Oak Hill, Austin was like that before they closed and relocated up the road. The defunct Albertsons on Peters Road in Plantation, Florida, many years ago, was where I first identified that particular stank.

And what do you see, what does it remind you of? I was in a locally owned grocer in New Orleans recently and there were sale signs, balloons, ribbons, cheerful colors, bright track lighting. It felt like a party. The place was packed. They were welcoming customers to join the celebration, spend their money. Or some of the stores I wrote about in Atlanta, where the lighting was dim, the signage old and smudged, and the stores smelled old, sour and broken down.

How does the produce look? Is it fresh, well stocked, rotated? Does it sparkle or is it dull and wilted? Or is that just too much wax on the apples? Look in the freezers, is ice crusted on the doors, the ice cream covered in flaky permafrost and freezer burn? This matters. It says a lot about the working conditions, the shopping experience, the quality of the equipment, what the company is willing to invest in the store. How much they care. Trust your senses. They will tell you a lot.

Product Assortment.

So what is the store selling? You can tell a lot about the store just by the greens in the wet rack or the fruit in the bins. What their priorities are, what drives their business model. What about the milk and eggs? Do they stock a few varieties, at varying price points and different levels of quality attributes? Even discounters like Aldi or Lidl, which sell maybe 1500 items in the whole store, will differentiate their products in each department.

In center store, pick a couple pantry categories and browse the shelves. Do they have generic, value priced private label brands, some familiar household names, maybe a couple newer, innovative items in each set? How about special diets or other “better for you” consumption trends? Do they stock gluten free, organic or Non GMO items alongside the conventional, normie stuff? And endcaps, what is on them? Are they cross merchandised, with items from different departments or areas of the store displayed together to make your shopping trip more convenient, and maybe tempt you with some impulse buying? Cereal with bananas, yogurt with granola, cookies with almond milk, soda with chips, etc. What products seem like priorities? Ultra-processed, junk food stuff, or more wholesome, nutritious options, maybe even a little of everything? Are there out of stocks or is the store fully loaded? What about date codes, did you check dates in fresh areas before putting items in your basket? How closely dated are highly perishable items. Any out of dates? How about the departments on the perimeter, like meat, bakery, deli? Full service counters or just grab and go? Freshly cut, baked, made in house or shipped in from elsewhere? Is it easy to tell? No judgements here, this is just a yardstick, a framework.

Pricing and Promotions.

Pricing is big on the public’s mind lately. Shit got real expensive. Cheap food is dead. Long live cheap food. But pricing is bullshit, after all. Grocery stores have different business models. Their margin targets at the enterprise level determine what kind of pricing strategy they need to stay open. Much of this in turn is determined by supply chains, buying power via their scale, and supplier relationships. Are there a lot of sale signs or is it just everyday low prices? Do categories have different price tiers for different items, like store brands, national brands and innovative, oddball new brands? Where on shelf are high priced items placed? What are the sale price points and are their significant markdowns? Are they in multiples that incentivize you to buy more than one? How are the prices on endcaps and displays? Price perception is a big driver for where and how people shop. What is the pricing telling you?

Layout and Merchandising.

How is the store laid out? Is it easy to shop, can you wind your way around the perimeter, meander the aisles, find what you need easily? Is it too creative and wonky, maybe some forced flows that divert you away from your shopping list into high margin impulse buying, like wine or imported cheese? Do you walk in circles, or can you zip in and out easily? Can you see across the store or do you feel like the gondolas are tall and claustrophobic, blocking the light and casting shadows. Are there creepy blind turns? Does the store lead with produce or bakery or other fresh products? Or everywhere you turn you see Frito Lay and Pepsi? Lots of margin in all that corn based ultra-processed stuff. Pollan called it. Where are the milk and eggs? What about housewares and bodycare and non food items? Store layout and product adjacencies are well thought out by grocers. You should think about them too.

Staffing.

Are employees in the aisles? Do they make eye contact or greet you when you walk buy? Maybe even ask you if you need help? Are the checkouts staffed or is it all self checkout robo-kiosks? Do the cashiers chit-chat a little while ringing you up? Do you bag your own or is someone bagging for you, helping out the cashier? What about full service areas, if any, like deli, meat, or high-end bodycare? Helpful staff, taking care with your delicate perishables or tchotchkes, making sure they get you what you need? Is it a union shop, with a steward on shift and a collective bargaining agreement? Or employee, worker owned, each staffer having some skin in the game?

Labor is the biggest variable expense in grocery stores. The biggest departments, like grocery and produce, have the fewest staff during store hours, since so much of their work happens early or overnight. The checkout is usually the biggest labor expense for the store, and full service departments require a lot more people than just a few clerks stocking coolers overnight. Daytime staffing is a big hint regarding what the grocer prioritizes. Service, community, customer support. Or cost cutting, labor efficiencies, bottom line performance, margin optimization. Do you get a sense of employee morale or interest in their jobs? Do folks avoid eye contact, look right through you, act like you are just in the way? Do you think the folks working there also enjoy shopping there (can they afford to), or do they punch out and jet until their next shift? Staffing says so much about the store, how they treat employees and what priority their well being has in the business model.

Sustainability.

Sustainability is all the rage. The planet is burning. Or flooding. And overheating. Or freezing. Or any and all, depending on the day/week. Younger consumers demand sustainability. Investors see it as a hedge against risk. Retailers are banking on it as a selling point. How is it being marketed? Is there signage, messaging? Is it legit? How does it compare to actual products on shelf. Pictures of local farmers above industrial carrots from California? Talking up sustainable seafood commitments when the case is mostly industrial trawler caught, pre-frozen filets? Lots of factory farmed meats beneath big signs calling out grass-fed and organic? Plant-based frozen food section easy to find? Or is it squeezed into a four foot set between two 20 foot sections of Hungry Man and Stouffer’s? Is there item level signage that draws attention to particular standards, certifications, procurement practices? How does that square up against what they are merchandising in aisles, on endcaps, at registers? Greenwash is very common and not regulated. It is pretty easy to do. It is not as easy to spot what is legit versus what may be bullshit or just mildly exaggerated. And how much does this attract your interest or detract from your shopping experience?

The Parking Lot.

You can tell a lot about who shops in stores by seeing who is parked outside. What are they driving. Beemers, Tahoes, Teslas. Upscale, aspirational. Or beat up old Priuses, app delivery drivers. F-150s, Land Rover Defenders, Outbacks and Crosstreks. Suburban weekend sports families, #MAHA bros, Kamala wine moms. Camrys and Accords, sedans, wagons, minivans. It is not just customers parking, but staff as well as Instacart and Uber Eats drivers. The parking lot of a dollar store won’t look like a cute specialty shop or an Erewhon. Natural Grocers sells a lot of the same stuff as Whole Foods, but attracts a different crowd. Just look at who is parked outside. Randall’s and Kroger, lots of overlap in those Houston parking lots, the FTC knows. Especially when you consider the adjacencies in the strip malls or local neighborhoods, what is next door or up the street.

Our country is based on class divides, which cut across race, gender, geography. Grocery stores are sites of food apartheid, they play into these divisions based on where they are located, what they sell, how they are priced. Assortment optimization is industry-speak for food apartheid. Parking lots can give you a good sense of that.

Ownership.

Ok, this last one is more abstract. But it matters, on the small scale and the big picture. Sometimes it is obvious. A co-op usually tells you so. An indie typically brags up their family ownership. Walmart is Walmart, Aldi is Aldi. But they are both family owned as well, just at a different level of scale. Others are more complicated. HEB, the national grocer of Texas, is owned by the Butt family, but they also have an ESOP. There is no longer a Joe Coulombe trading at Trader Joe’s. Sometimes ownership is harder to tell. Food Lion is owned by a Dutch-Belgian conglomerate that also owns Stop&Shop, Hannaford and the two Giant companies. Smith’s is a Kroger banner, alongside 20 odd other chains. Acme, part of Albertsons, likewise Safeway, Randall’s, King’s, etc. Bashas is now with Raley’s. Fairway is part of the Wakefern cooperative, just like ShopRite. Dollar General is owned by Satan’s minions. Just kidding. Sort of.

Does ownership matter? In the abstract sense, maybe. If you can make the time, effort, have the resources to care about where your money is going or whether you are getting the best value for your dollar, also a big maybe. Who owns your store determines what they sell, guides their prices, what their priorities are, how they treat employees, whether they have a long term plan or just need to pay off investors and cut dividends to Wall Street asset managers.

For example, Whole Foods. Some things are better under Amazon, like their prices. Their sales are on the uptick now (based on UNFI “supernatural” channel sales), but they have mostly been hit or miss. The produce is still great. They do some compelling regenerative and ethical sourcing. But store staffing is thin, employee turnover is high, their Target/Walmart-inspired marketing is a bit over the top, prepared foods is barely Sysco-quality, and inventory levels are determined by algorithms to conserve cash, not stay in stock. Compare these go-to market strategy to Fairway, Sprouts, Natural Grocers or Mom’s and where they thrive or have challenges. Ownership, and by extension leadership and management, matters.

The grocery industry is highly concentrated, just 6 firms control over 60% of sales. But there are still plenty of alternatives slogging it out, thousands of indies and hundreds of co-ops. Ownership is a “nice to know”, but also gives plenty of context and perspective to all the questions and answers above. We hope this framework is helpful, in whatever way you use it.

2. Food Politics In The U.S. Elections

I spoke with one of my favorite investigative journalists, Thin Wei Lin, on food and the 2024 U.S. election. Thin also spoke to some other awesome thinkers and writers, including my IPES-Food homies Raj Patel and Jennifer Clapp.

Here are a few of my key insights:

“Project 2025 will remake the executive branch. It'll remake the role of government in American life. 

“They want to put government in everybody's personal business but deconstruct the agencies that protect consumer welfare and the environment.

“In the Trump campaign, they’re talking about (high prices), but their solutions are worse than the problem. He talks about how he'll bring prices down. He doesn't talk about how. But then he talks about deporting a million people and creating a tariff war with China. 

“Trump has also come out to say he’s against price controls… because that'll cause hoarding and shortages… what’s going to cause hoarding and shortages is deporting a million people who are responsible for planting, harvesting, growing, distributing, and manufacturing everything in the food supply chain.”

And I dug Raj Patel’s takes on “Make America Healthy Again” and price gouging:

“People are legitimately concerned about how the food system is broken, and that Americans are spending quite as much as we are on healthcare as a result of our food system… But the one thing that really does drop out is class. There's painfully little concern about the fact that actually the health outcomes that everyone seems to be decrying are disproportionately borne by working class people, by the poor, by people of colour.” 

“You've got this deep concern about the food system, but actually, it appears the real concern is a very individualized, “my body is a temple, and no one shall defile my precious bodily fluids” kind of approach to healthcare, which is, I mean, of a piece with racial purity and discourses around keeping the blood of the nation pure. 

“The Harris campaign's talk of price gouging… I think the vagary there is an opportunity to open the door to really say, “Well, look, the reason that price gouging, in the colloquial sense, is happening is because food corporations are protecting their profits, not just the technical definition of price gouging, where in an emergency, knowing the elasticity of demand for certain things, people are going to pay for them no matter what… Though, I do think that it's important to celebrate the antitrust stuff that's happening. I think Harris is under quite a lot of pressure to get rid of Lina Khan, and I think Lina Khan needs to be defended.” 

3. Latin America Takes On Ultra-processed Foods.

Great article from UK-based Novara Media on this topic. Some highlights:

Brazil overhauled its nutritional guildelines and has experienced a halving in the rate of increase in both adult obesity and UPF purchases.

Chile’s front-of-package warning labels “on foods high in sugar, salt, saturated fat or calories led consumers to purchase 24% fewer calories, 37% less salt and 27% less saturated fat from these foods, as well as 10% less sugar overall. Mexico’s warning labels are expected to prevent 1.3 million cases of obesity, a reduction of 15%”.

Why? Latin America has seen a wave of progressive governments over the last two decades, particularly in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico. Mexico’s outgoing president has sky-high approval ratings because he implemented policies that positively benefitted his constituents, like better wages and social welfare benefits. Imagine that. And his successor, Claudia Scheinbaum, is the first female Jewish president in the Americas, a climate scientist and the former mayor of Mexico City. She is expected to carry on the same food sovereignty policies as her predecessor.

One major takeaway: “Policymakers see this as the last chance to preserve rich traditional food cultures, which center on sustainable local smallholder produce increasingly threatened by globalised agribusinesses.”

Another key takeaway: “Having a very strong civil society and academia without conflicts of interest providing data for the government is essential.”

Once again, more reasons to support and expand territorial food markets AKA “food from somewhere” and to make fresh produce free at point of sale.

4. A “BFY Takis” Smackdown.

Speaking of ultra processed foods. Let’s say you love the flavor and crunch of Grupo Bimbo’s Takis. But you have some misgivings about ingredients like Red 40, TBHQ, MSG, etc., and you still want a tasty, crunchy snack. The good news is you have options. I sampled two “better for you” versions of similar rolled chili lime tortilla chips. My daughter, a Biology PhD candidate and fellow grocery nerd, clued me into them, so due credit. So here we go.

Trader Joe’s version was $2.29. The flavor was over the top sour, more like a Sour Patch chip, with a robust crunch, a bit spicy yet not very flavorful. No real umami. The sour was really intense and puckered, hitting your tongue like a shock, with some chili spice behind it, then not much follow through. Packaging wise, TJ’s had their typically kitchy looking graphics.

Zack’s Mighty was on sale for 2/$4 at Whole Foods. The flavor was more savory but less sour. The spice was milder but had a lot more more chili flavor, with a broader taste, and more umami. The chips were crunchier but much less puckery. The dark packaging got lost on shelf a bit. But I did like the hot pink and lime green color treatment across the middle. The Johnny Cash ring of fire vibe was cool too, but took away from the actual product shots.

Winner here? I’d say it’s a draw because each of these had positive but different flavor attributes, so depending on what you like, you can’t go wrong. But my kids liked the Trader Joe’s version better, so go with their pick. Snack on that.

5. Tunes

Did someone say Johnny Cash? The Man In Black.

peace.