Grocery Update #31: The Circus Comes To Town.

Also: Cornucopia Institute's Organic and Independent Brands List. And More!

Discontents: 1. Post-Election Post Mortem. 2. Let Them Eat Interest Rates. 3. Record Sales of Natural and Organic Products. 4. Cornucopia Institute’s Organic and Independent Brands. 5. CVS Clerks Win Big Gains. 6. Fuel To Fork Webinar. 7. Progressive Grocer’s Top Down Innovation. 8. Seen In The Wild. 9. Tunes.

1. Post-Election Post-Mortem.

Thanks to Union of Concerned Scientists for this sharp analysis on what to expect from the Trump 47 administration on food and agriculture:

“Mass deportation will target many farmworkers. Deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants—and even seeking to remove legal immigrants and denaturalize US citizens—was one of Trump’s most oft-repeated promises on the campaign trail. These plans would be extraordinarily damaging to a food system that relies heavily on immigrant workers, destabilizing local economies and driving up food prices.

“Ill-conceived tariffs and a new trade war. Trump’s obsession with tariffs promises to raise consumer prices, increase farmers’ costs, and reignite the agricultural trade wars that… left taxpayers footing a staggering $28 billion bill.

“Fresh attacks on USDA food assistance and healthy eating programs. President Trump’s first term was marked by multiple attempts by the administration and its congressional allies to restrict access to food assistance.

“Abandonment of new USDA antidiscrimination policies. The Biden administration established an Equity Commission to guide future USDA policies and directed $2 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act to farmers who had been harmed.

“Erasing climate action from the USDA’s mission. President-elect Trump still proudly calls climate change a hoax. His first-term war on climate action included burying a USDA climate response plan.

“Letting Big Ag corporations make the rules. The “revolving door” of lobbyists-turned-policymakers spins in every administration, and giant agribusiness corporations and interest groups spend millions lobbying whoever is in charge. But Big Ag found an especially willing ear in President Trump’s USDA and his ethically-challenged agriculture secretary.”

And contrast this with Food Fix’s coverage of “Make American Healthy Again”:

“Calley Means, the co-founder of Truemed, who has become an influential advisor at the crux of the Kennedy-Trump alliance…(said) the goal is “getting research accurate, getting conflicts of interest out of the USDA’s nutrition guidelines committee”.

“‘We need a definitive report on glyphosate, we need a definitive report on the food colorings,” Means said. “The problem is the food industry owns nutrition science — it’s an orgy of corruption.’

“‘There is nobody in the agriculture system that thinks our current subsidy system is functional, that things are working well. We’re the agricultural power of the world, but 20 percent of our children are malnourished. Our soil is depleted, our food is less nutrient-dense, we’ve obviously lost our way when it comes to dependence on ultra-processed food and the thousands of ingredients that are being phased out of every other country.’”

My take: This RFK Jr./#MAHA platform is ambitious and doubtlessly brought many people into the Trump camp, some willing to sacrifice abortion, labor, immigration and civil rights to get food dye out of breakfast cereal and envision regenerative agriculture without migrant laborers doing all the hard work. From the MAHA website:

“MAHA seeks to drive a transformative agenda… this includes prioritizing regenerative agriculture, preserving natural habitats, and eliminating toxins from our food, water, and air.” This is a new vibe for the GOP, especially considering who may be picked to run the USDA under Trump.

In the meantime, the dude who is possibly the next Attorney General wants to put journalists in gulags and immigrant kids in cages. The next czar of immigration and deportation seems adorable, a real gentle, empathic sort of guy. And the top pick for Chief of Staff used to be a tobacco lobbyist. I shit you not.

So if you aren't being detained, deported or otherwise disenfranchised, get your popcorn ready. This is going to be WILD. The circus has come to town.

2. Let Them Eat Interest Rates.

As a grocer, I know that price perception is reality. While the Biden Administration did some good things to improve macroeconomic conditions and post-pandemic recovery, such as the CHIPs Act, the Inflation Reduction Act and Build Back Better, they were ineffective in improving material conditions for many of their constituents, especially with brutally high interest rates and 30% higher food prices. Contrast this to the popularity of Mexico’s last President, “AMLO”, his hugely effective populist economic policies, such as increased profit sharing, disability benefits and a doubling of the minimum wage, with wages for salaried workers outpacing inflation by 32.6 percent. Plus AMLO’s savvy with the media helped his successor, Claudia Scheinbaum, a former mayor, a Jewish woman and a climate scientist, win with overwhelming support, over 60% of the vote, 32 points higher than her rival.

The disparity between macroeconomic factors and material conditions is among the top reasons the Democrats lost. Poverty is up 67% since 2021, food insecurity up 40%. No doubt social media disinformation, plenty of racism and misogyny, along with disgust and apathy due to militaristic foreign policy all contributed as well. But cash rules everything around me. I wrote this for Forbes in February 2024:

“Up to 4 out of 5 consumers believe that “greedflation” is rampant. Consumers are still citing food prices as their number one economic concern: 94% are worried about food prices. Share of income spent on food increased 13% in 2022. Two thirds of consumers are spending significantly more on groceries than last year. US household purchasing power slipped 7% in the first half of 2023. Over 70 percent of Americans are financially stressed, with 58% living paycheck to paycheck. Food insecurity impacts 27 million Americans, up 12% over the last year. Meanwhile, high-interest rates, rising debt, historically high housing costs, resumption of student loan repayments and reductions in SNAP benefits are squeezing household budgets. More than 40 million people fell below the poverty line in 2022.”

An economist from the Levy Institute, Pavlina Tcherneva, had a great post-mortem summarizing what went wrong:

“The U.S. saw the fastest recovery in postwar history and an unprecedented level of government spending, but for working families the economy has pretty much returned to its pre-COVID status quo. And that wasn’t pretty. But for a brief moment during the COVID crisis, Americans realized what was possible: they got universal healthcare, no questions asked. They could get student loan relief and a break from other debt and rent payment. Parents received a universal child allowance. All of it was possible and all of it disappeared…
 
”Today we know that the job market is softening even as the unemployment level remains around its pre-COVID lows. Part-time-employment for economic reasons has been on the rise. Job-related anxieties have been clear in sentiment surveys for a while, but the problems are deeper and structural. American families’ standard of living has been slipping for a long time: housing, education, and healthcare have been consistently out of reach. The high grocery bill that American families get to see every day has only added insult to injury…

“Economists fed this complacency… glossing over the clear sense among the electorate that the economy is profoundly broken and folks are fed up with the status quo.
 
”Growth is not enough. This much should have been obvious long ago. Structural economic issues and insecurity still shape voters’ lives and continue to shape every dimension of politics.”

3. Record Sales of Natural and Organic Products Are Making America Healthier.

The sales of natural, organic, regenerative and sustainable products surpassed $300 billion in sales on 4.8% growth in 2023, and is projected to grow at about 5% per year to reach $318.6 billion in 2024, and $386.42 billion by 2028, with the market “showing no signs of slowing down.” The report states: “the natural products industry has infiltrated every part of brick-and-mortar and online retail and is outpacing conventional products’ growth. Slow and steady is winning this race.”

4. Cornucopia Institute’s Organic and Independent Brands List.

According to Natural Newsdesk, The Cornucopia Institute has launched a new initiative aimed at directing consumers towards independently owned brands and avoiding major corporations. This builds on their previous work documenting which big food conglomerates own popular organic brands.

Over 100 brands are brought together under the newly published Independent Organic Brand List. To qualify for inclusion, brands must meet strict criteria: they must be independently owned, available nationwide (US), and sell only organic products.

This project is informed by the important work of Dr. Phil Howard, Michigan State University professor and a fellow member of International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems.

5. CVS Pharmacy Clerks Win Big Gains.

After a 3 day walkout at CVS locations in Southern California due to low pay, unfair labor practices and poor staffing levels, over 7,000 CVS pharmacy technicians have won some impressive gains.

This includes wage increases for all workers each year of the contract; New longevity rates at 10 and 15 years resulting in wage increases of close to 20% over 3 years; Elimination of 2-tier wage scale; Increased healthcare bonus for employees who were struggling with the high cost of the company plan; And protection of health benefits for those employees who are in the union-managed health plan. The contract will go into effect immediately for over 7,000 essential pharmacy workers in CVS locations across California. 

6. Fuel To Fork Webinar Recording and Podcast

Fuel To Fork is a podcast series on how our food supply is completely dependent on fossil fuels. I participated in a webinar with some other outstanding guests, now available here. Please stream or download “Fuel to Fork” at fueltofork.com or wherever you listen to podcasts. And check out the recent report “Food From Somewhere” on the need for local food and please check out the 2023 report “Power Shift: Why We Need to Wean Industrial Food Systems Off Fossil Fuels”.

7. Progressive Grocer’s Top Down Innovation.

Progressive Grocer traveled to my old stomping grounds at Whole Foods’ headquarters in Austin, Texas. They chatted with some senior leadership on how the company does product innovation. What I found odd about the coverage was that the reporter spoke with a number of senior executives who have never done category buying or product development. They did not speak with many of the skilled category merchants doing the actual work. I asked some colleagues who still work in retail operations what they thought about this, and one responded:

“It’s never about the farmer, the rancher, the grower, the worker. Rarely about the founder, or entrepreneur that takes a risk in doing something better for themselves and sharing it with the world. It’s never about the people that actually do the work anymore. Just the people that want to take credit for it in the press.”

8. Seen In The Wild.

Wegman’s seasonal assortment is grrrrrreat.

9. Tunes.

Long week? WWRJDD. What would Ronnie James Dio Do?

peace.